Seven Years of Speculation, Graded
The devy pick is the boldest play in dynasty — name a college freshman and bet your roster on him. 206 names since 2020, graded against the only judge that matters: whether the NFL ever called. Studs we still brag about, busts we’ll never live down, and one freshman class still in the oven.
They Saw It Coming
Ranked by current DynastyProcess 2QB value — the league’s unblinking judgment of who’s worth what right now.
| # | Player | Pos | College | Owner | Pick | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ja'Marr ChaseLSU | WR | LSU | Jesse | 2020 · 2.01 | 9.2k |
| 2 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaOhio State | WR | Ohio State | Trav | 2021 · 5.03 | 8.6k |
| 3 | Bijan RobinsonTexas | RB | Texas | Jalen | 2021 · 1.04 | 8.1k |
| 4 | Amon-Ra St. BrownUSC | WR | USC | Norman | 2020 · 3.12 | 7.8k |
| 5 | Caleb WilliamsUSC | QB | USC | Alex | 2021 · 4.03 | 7.8k |
| 6 | Jahmyr GibbsAlabama | RB | Alabama | Jesse | 2021 · 1.08 | 7.7k |
| 7 | Jayden DanielsLSU | QB | LSU | Jalen | 2021 · 3.10 | 7.5k |
| 8 | Drake MayeNorth Carolina | QB | North Carolina | Ehran | 2023 · 1.01 | 6.3k |
| 9 | Ashton JeantyBoise State | RB | Boise State | Alex | 2024 · 2.06 | 6.2k |
| 10 | Trevor LawrenceClemson | QB | Clemson | Bsco | 2020 · 1.03 | 6.0k |
| 11 | Malik NabersLSU | WR | LSU | Bsco | 2023 · 3.04 | 5.9k |
| 12 | Jeremiyah LoveNotre Dame | RB | Notre Dame | Jesse | 2025 · 1.11 | 5.9k |
Names We’d Like Back
Devy picks old enough to judge — five college years past the draft — who never made an NFL roster. They’re not cooking, they’re cold. The franchise low: Andrew at 2020 · 1.09, Journey Brown.
| Player | Pos | College | Owner | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Journey BrownPenn State | RB | Penn State | Andrew | 2020 · 1.09 |
| Tamorrion TerryFlorida State | WR | Florida State | Norman | 2020 · 2.02 |
| Julian FlemingPenn State | WR | Penn State | Evan | 2020 · 4.03 |
| Kenneth GainwellMemphis | RB | Memphis | Jesse | 2020 · 5.06 |
| JT DanielsGeorgia | QB | Georgia | Jalen | 2021 · 3.06 |
| Arik GilbertLSU | TE | LSU | Rob | 2021 · 4.08 |
| Trey SandersAlabama | RB | Alabama | Adam | 2021 · 4.12 |
| Bru McCoyUSC | WR | USC | Rob | 2021 · 5.08 |
Heists & Reaches
Value measured against the draft capital it cost. A devy taken late who blew up is a heist; an early pick that never paid off is a reach. Slot cost runs 60 (the 1.01) down to 1 (the last pick) — the steal score is value per unit of that capital.
Tetairoa McMillan
Stolen at 5.12 — pick #60 of 60 — and now worth 4.9k. The best return on draft capital in devy history.
| Player | Pick | Owner | Value | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillanWR | 5.12 | Alex | 4.9k | 4869 |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR | 5.03 | Trav | 8.6k | 860 |
| KC ConcepcionWR | 5.11 | Westy | 1.3k | 669 |
| Caleb WilliamsQB | 4.03 | Alex | 7.8k | 354 |
| Carnell TateWR | 5.01 | Bsco | 3.9k | 328 |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR | 3.12 | Norman | 7.8k | 312 |
| Jayden DanielsQB | 3.10 | Jalen | 7.5k | 279 |
| CJ StroudQB | 4.10 | Trav | 4.0k | 265 |
| Emeka EgbukaWR | 4.05 | Alex | 4.6k | 232 |
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR | 2.01 | Jesse | 9.2k | 192 |
| Player | Pick | Owner | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raheim SandersRB | 1.02 | Westy | NFL Lite |
| Drew AllarQB | 1.03 | Jalen | NFL Lite |
| Rashod BatemanWR | 1.04 | Jalen | NFL Lite |
| Max BorghiRB | 1.05 | Bsco | NFL Lite |
| Ryan WilliamsWR | 1.06 | Nick | NFL Lite |
| Chuba HubbardRB | 1.01 | Norman | DEPTH |
| Justin FieldsQB | 1.07 | Brian | NFL Lite |
| Sean TuckerRB | 1.08 | Jesse | NFL Lite |
| Journey BrownRB | 1.09 | Andrew | BUST |
| Braelon AllenRB | 1.09 | Bsco | NFL Lite |
The Ones That Got Away
Devys the drafter scouted, nailed — and then shipped out for a haul that never matched. Netted against what came back, then sorted by the gap: if the return was just as good, it’s no regret at all.
Norman drafted him at 2.10 in 2020, then shipped him to Moore Chubb in 2022 (Wk 1).
Got back Zach Wilson +2 more — 201 starter pts since.
See the deal →Norman drafted him at 1.01 in 2020, then shipped him to Moore Chubb in 2021 (Wk 1).
Got back Mecole Hardman — 63 starter pts since.
See the deal →From Grace
Devys who once cleared the stud line and have since cratered. Ranked by the drop from their all-time DynastyProcess peak to what the market says today — the steepest falls from grace.
Najee Harris
Peaked at 8.6k in 2022; the market now has him at 16. A 8.6k evaporation of dynasty value.
| Player | Owner | Peak | Now | Drop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony RichardsonQB | Westy | 8.1k | 348 | −7.7k |
| Justin FieldsQB | Brian | 7.6k | 63 | −7.6k |
| Trey LanceQB | Andrew | 5.7k | 2 | −5.7k |
| CJ StroudQB | Trav | 9.6k | 4.0k | −5.6k |
| Kyle PittsTE | Rob | 7.4k | 2.0k | −5.4k |
| Travis EtienneRB | Andrew | 6.6k | 2.1k | −4.5k |
| Marvin Harrison Jr.WR | Andrew | 7.9k | 3.9k | −4.1k |
| Breece HallRB | Jalen | 8.0k | 4.1k | −4.0k |
| Jaylen WaddleWR | Jalen | 7.0k | 3.4k | −3.6k |
| Kyren WilliamsRB | Jesse | 5.2k | 2.2k | −3.1k |
Risers & Fallers
If each class were redrafted today by current value, who’d shoot up the board and who’d tumble? Movement is measured against the order they were actually taken — cooling freshmen excluded.
| Player | Class | Re-Draft | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR | 2021 | 29↑1 | 8.6k |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR | 2020 | 27↑2 | 7.8k |
| Caleb WilliamsQB | 2021 | 23↑3 | 7.8k |
| Marvin MimsWR | 2021 | 35↑15 | 34 |
| CJ StroudQB | 2021 | 27↑8 | 4.0k |
| Tetairoa McMillanWR | 2023 | 20↑3 | 4.9k |
| Emeka EgbukaWR | 2021 | 24↑7 | 4.6k |
| DeVonta SmithWR | 2020 | 23↑7 | 3.9k |
| Player | Class | Re-Draft | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max BorghiRB | 2020 | 4↓21 | NFL Lite |
| Raheim SandersRB | 2023 | 2↓18 | NFL Lite |
| Kedon SlovisQB | 2021 | 4↓19 | NFL Lite |
| David BellWR | 2021 | 5↓20 | NFL Lite |
| Desmond RidderQB | 2021 | 6↓21 | NFL Lite |
| Journey BrownRB | 2020 | 7↓22 | BUST |
| Jase McClellanRB | 2021 | 7↓22 | NFL Lite |
| Eric GrayRB | 2021 | 8↓23 | NFL Lite |
Never Let Go
The devys still on their drafter’s roster today — scouted in college, never sold, still paying rent. Loyalty, ranked by how long it’s held.
Jalen · held 6 yrs
Andrew · held 6 yrs
Norman · held 6 yrs
Jalen · held 5 yrs
Alex · held 5 yrs
Jesse · held 5 yrs
Jalen · held 5 yrs
Norman · held 5 yrs
Alex · held 5 yrs
Jesse · held 5 yrs
Andrew · held 4 yrs
Jalen · held 4 yrs
Jalen · held 4 yrs
Jesse · held 4 yrs
Ehran · held 3 yrs
Bsco · held 3 yrs
Alex · held 3 yrs
Alex · held 3 yrs
Norman · held 3 yrs
Alex · held 2 yrs
Jesse · held 2 yrs
Westy · held 2 yrs
Jesse · held 1 yr
Jordan · held 1 yr
Westy · held 1 yr
Westy · held 1 yr
Drafting Tendencies
Every owner’s positional fingerprint across their devy bets — the QB gamblers, the WR hoarders, the running-back believers.
Who Sees It, Who Reaches
Sorted by total value extracted across all seven classes. Hit Rate = the share of settled picks (5+ years past the draft, plus anyone already matched to a current Sleeper roster) that became a realNFL career — defined here as clearing 2,000 DynastyProcess value (the same line as a startable HIT). Backups and practice-squad bodies don’t earn the franchise credit just for surviving cuts. Recent freshmen are excluded so owners who just drafted devys aren’t graded prematurely. Fewer than three settled picks renders as “—”.
| Owner | Picks | Hits | Studs | Busts | Hit Rate | Value | Best Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 33%(5/15) | 30.8k | Ja'Marr Chase · 9.2k | |
| 14 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 50%(5/10) | 27.9k | Caleb Williams · 7.8k | |
| 18 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 36%(4/11) | 27.9k | Bijan Robinson · 8.1k | |
| 14 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 44%(4/9) | 20.2k | Amon-Ra St. Brown · 7.8k | |
| 21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 31%(4/13) | 18.5k | Trevor Lawrence · 6.0k | |
| 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 50%(3/6) | 15.8k | Jaxon Smith-Njigba · 8.6k | |
| 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 27%(3/11) | 11.6k | Jaxson Dart · 5.5k | |
| 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 33%(2/6) | 9.2k | Brock Bowers · 4.9k | |
| 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20%(2/10) | 7.9k | Colston Loveland · 3.6k | |
| 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 33%(2/6) | 7.0k | DeVonta Smith · 3.9k | |
| 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20%(1/5) | 6.8k | Drake Maye · 6.3k | |
| 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25%(1/4) | 4.6k | Garrett Wilson · 4.6k | |
| 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17%(1/6) | 2.0k | Kyle Pitts · 2.0k | |
| 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0%(0/9) | 1.9k | Bryce Young · 1.9k | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0%(0/5) | 390 | Blake Corum · 363 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 365 | Jonah Coleman · 365 | |
| 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Seven Drafts, Seven Verdicts
How each class aged. Cooking counts are recent freshmen still maturing on campus — give them three more Octobers before judging.
The Best Vintages
Seven devy classes, ranked head-to-head by the realized dynasty value they’ve produced — with hit rate as the tiebreaker. Cooking-heavy recent classes sit low for now; give the grapes time.
The Scout’s Factories
Which college programs the league keeps mining for devy gold — ranked by the total dynasty value their alumni have returned.
| College | Picks | NFL | Studs | Top Devy | Total Val |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | 14 | 9 | 1 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba · 8.6k | 36.5k |
| LSU | 10 | 5 | 3 | Ja'Marr Chase · 9.2k | 22.8k |
| USC | 7 | 6 | 2 | Amon-Ra St. Brown · 7.8k | 19.3k |
| Alabama | 15 | 10 | 1 | Jahmyr Gibbs · 7.7k | 16.9k |
| North Carolina | 4 | 4 | 1 | Drake Maye · 6.3k | 12.2k |
| Georgia | 10 | 6 | 0 | Brock Bowers · 4.9k | 9.7k |
| Texas | 10 | 5 | 1 | Bijan Robinson · 8.1k | 9.2k |
| Clemson | 11 | 9 | 1 | Trevor Lawrence · 6.0k | 8.6k |
| Notre Dame | 6 | 3 | 1 | Jeremiyah Love · 5.9k | 8.1k |
| Ole Miss | 7 | 6 | 1 | Jaxson Dart · 5.5k | 7.7k |
| Boise State | 1 | 1 | 1 | Ashton Jeanty · 6.2k | 6.2k |
| Arizona | 1 | 1 | 0 | Tetairoa McMillan · 4.9k | 4.9k |
| Michigan | 6 | 4 | 0 | Colston Loveland · 3.6k | 4.3k |
| Iowa State | 2 | 1 | 0 | Breece Hall · 4.1k | 4.1k |
| Washington | 3 | 3 | 0 | Rome Odunze · 3.0k | 3.9k |
Where the Bets Pay
The hit rate of a devy gamble depends a lot on which position you’re projecting. RBs age fast; WRs need three years of college tape; QBs are the lottery tickets. NFL % here counts anyone who reached an NFL roster — a looser bar than the value-based Hit Rate in the Drafter Ledger.
| Pos | Picks | NFL | Studs | NFL % | Total Val |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 76 | 48 | 4 | 94% | 89.1k |
| RB | 67 | 37 | 4 | 93% | 47.7k |
| QB | 54 | 29 | 5 | 97% | 42.4k |
| TE | 9 | 7 | 0 | 88% | 13.8k |
Verdict Pending
Recent devy picks who haven’t graduated to the NFL yet. The jury’s still in college.
Verdicts as of 2026-09-21. Value source: DynastyProcess 2QB consensus. Player matching is best-effort against the current Sleeper roster — a few historical names may slip through if spellings drifted. Two bars are used: “Made the NFL” and the By-Position NFL % count anyone who reached an NFL roster (practice squad included); a “Hit” and the Drafter Ledger’s Hit Rate require clearing 2,000 DynastyProcess value.